The first break of a range after CPI or NFP is often a trap. A checklist for waiting without FOMO.
Why false breaks cluster around data
Widened spreads, stop cascades, and incomplete information create overshoots. The “break” may reverse once the book normalises and the detail of the release is digested.
A simple wait protocol
Many discretionary traders wait for spreads to settle, for a reclaim of the broken level, or for a fixed clock (for example five to fifteen minutes) before acting. Pick one protocol and journal adherence.
Do not chase the wick
Market orders into the first extreme are often the most expensive fills of the week. If your plan requires participation, define maximum acceptable slippage and cancel when it is breached.
Second moves deserve their own plan
Headline, then detail, then positioning — three phases, not one candle. Size the second idea independently; do not “average” a failed first impulse by reflex.