The week of 13–17 July 2026 stacks US CPI, PPI, retail sales, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony. Prepare the calendar before the tape.
Why this week is dense
Market calendars for mid-July 2026 flag June CPI (around 14 July), PPI the following day, retail sales later in the week, and Chair Warsh’s Humphrey-Hawkins-style testimony before Congress. Bank earnings also open the US Q2 reporting season. Dense weeks punish improvisation more than quiet weeks.
Separate the events
CPI and testimony are not one trade. Inflation prints reprice yields in seconds; testimony can reprice the path over hours as Q&A unfolds. Decide in advance which event you will engage, which you will only observe, and what “flat” looks like for overnight risk.
Cross-asset telltales
After CPI, check whether the two-year yield and the dollar move together. A joint rise often pressures gold and higher-beta FX; a joint fade can do the opposite. Conflicting moves mean smaller size or no discretionary entry.
Process over prediction
Write max slippage, max account risk, and a stop-trading rule if spreads explode. Standing aside through a “super week” is a valid plan. Verify exact release times on your calendar provider — schedules can shift.