CME FedWatch-style probabilities spiked toward a 2026 hike after minutes and oil risk. Treat the tool as a temperature check, not a crystal ball.
What the probabilities are
Implied probabilities from fed-funds futures summarise where the market’s centre of gravity sits today. Mid-July commentary cited September hike odds rising toward roughly 60%+ after hawkish minutes interpretation and energy inflation fears. Those numbers will move again with CPI.
Common misuse
Trading as if “64% means a hike is coming” confuses a market price with a destiny. A 64% hike odds still leaves a large hold/cut residual. Size for both outcomes.
Pair the tool with yields
If FedWatch hike odds rise but the two-year yield does not confirm, ask why. Tool lag, options positioning, or a local FX story may be in play. Confirm with the cash rates market.
Operational tip
Screenshot or note the probability before CPI and after. The change often matters more than the absolute level for short-horizon FX decisions.