Policy language moves markets. Learn the shorthand without treating every adjective as a trade signal.
Hawkish vs dovish in practice
Hawkish usually means tighter policy for longer or higher; dovish means the opposite. Markets trade the surprise relative to expectations, not the absolute tone in a vacuum.
Compare to the last statement
Word changes versus the previous communication often matter more than a single speech in isolation. Keep the prior statement handy.
Speakers are not equal
Voting members and chairs typically move the needle more than peripheral speakers. Weight the source.
Do not overfit adjectives
A “cautiously hawkish” paragraph can still be priced as dovish if markets wanted more. Price is the referee; language is the input.